COMMODITIES WEEKLY

巴克莱资本银行 Sudakshina Unnikrishnan，Kate Tang


　　Commodity prices have posted widespread and broad-based price weakness over theweek. The re-emergence of China and US growth concerns, plus worries over Spanishsovereign debt, are undermining commodity prices, but we recommend being alert tobuying opportunities in the weeks ahead, especially in base and precious metals. We expecta bottoming in Chinese growth momentum before long, which alongside steady USgrowth, should more than offset the negatives of a weak Europe. While it may be temptingto short markets such as oil and copper at present, we would advise against it. Althoughweaker compared with Q1, fundamentals in both markets still look positive, and downsideis limited unless there is a major negative macro shock in the form of a deterioration inEurope or evidence of a hard landing in China, neither of which we think likely. Rather, wewould wait for buying opportunities in the markets we favour most at present: namely,palladium and gold in precious metals; and copper and lead in base metals.