oilmarketweekly:Structural Signals—Will Brent Time Spreads Recover in 2H2012?

J.P.MORGAN WHITEFRIARS INC. J.P.MORGAN研究所


　　Brent spreads are at the lowest level since the brief interlude last summer when theIEA announced a release of strategic reserves, and the lowest on a sustained basissince autumn 2010. While this move reflects changes in the broadersupply/demand outlook, it also partly reflects the rising supply of light sweet crudein the Atlantic Basin due to the return of Libyan output to close to pre-conflictlevels. Moreover, reported pricing shifts in the physical Brent structure, with thereturn of contango in the dated-to-frontline market, indicates that North Seamarkets are discounting to clear. Apart from the broader trend to build stocks in2Q2012, it appears as if other factors specific to Dated Brent price formation arecontributing to the recent weakness, particularly in prompt months.